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leading 3a-4a: how do I adjust my takepoint for gammons won by me?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 9 July 2013, at 7:30 p.m.

In Response To: leading 3a-4a: how do I adjust my takepoint for gammons won by me? (Tenland)

Your 2-cube dead tp ATS is ~24% while the 2-cube g values favor the trailer by approx 98%/45% and the trailer's 4-cube takepoint is around 18.5%. So the gammon-adjusted takepoint (GAT) is 24% + 98% of oppt's g's - 45% of your own. If oppt/you have 20%/5% gammons then the GAT is about 41.5%. Then adjust for cube vig. The way I do it at a score like this is to first figure out what my tp would be if I won zero gammons. If oppt/you had 20%/0% g's, your GAT would be 44%. Since you're up in the match and the oppt's 4-cube tp is reduced, it's probably more accurate to assume 50% or so efficiency rather than the normal 70% so the cube vig would be worth half of 44% x 18.5% = ~4% making your tp 40%. Everything else being equal, you'd rather have 5% gammons than 0% so that should lower your true takepoint by a percent or two. 38% to 39% would be my guess for the cubeful GAT.

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