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Average number of games in a match

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Wednesday, 10 July 2013, at 6:09 p.m.

In Response To: Average number of games in a match (Maik Stiebler)

I cannot answer your original question, but if that is your intent, and you are willing to trust the Jacobs/Trice fish METs, you can simply get that from gnubg by comparing the pass/take-mwcs for the fish MET and a "normal" reference MET (perhaps it is best to use the symmetric Jacobs MET as reference for that purpose).


I've been using fish METs and while they can be helpful in some positions, there are also situations where I don't agree with them.
I think my intended method of comparing the match lengths after both taking and passing and estimating the opponent's future errors in both cases might produce better results in some cases. I don't claim it would be easy to come up with correct estimates and maybe I am wrong about all this, but I'd love to try it out. Having the average number of games in a match is the hardest part of the equation. If someone has a way to calculate it (by doing simulations or whatever) I'd be immensely thankful. I would need it for as many different scores as possible, and for high and low gammon positions.

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