A XG+ cubeless 5k RO gives values that are just very slightly better for the backgame side compared with those from DT results from the XG+ cubeful RO. The wins go up .22%, gammon losses down .08% and bg losses down .47%
This suggests that at the time of the pass in the cubeful RO that the cubeful RO was undervaluing (but probably not too much) the backgame players side meaning that some bad passes might be made but also that there may have been some missed cubes as well.
Using the cubeless results with .7 efficiency for backgame player I get takepoint of 41.3% wins needed so that makes it an easy take with 43.8% wins.
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| XGID=-bbDDD-a---------bbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:0 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 56.244% (G:34.150% B:15.290%) | 56.240% (G:34.140% B:15.305%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 43.756% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 43.760% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6193 | +1.2385 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.6193 (-0.3807) | ±0.0045 (+0.6147..+0.6238) |
| Double/Take: | +1.2385 (+0.2385) | ±0.0091 (+1.2294..+1.2476) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: XG Roller+, cube decisions: 1-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 19 hours 10 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10