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OLM 2013-07-18

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 18 July 2013, at 3:44 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-07-18 (Jason Lee)

I cheated by using the away-scoring part of my new "Tom Keith" scoresheet as scratch paper:

There are 16 rolls that fail to clear:

  • 11 shots: 14, 15, 23
  • 12 shots: 11, 13, 22, 24
  • 14 shots: 33, 12
  • 17 shots: 66
P( leave shot ) = 4/9
P( shot is hit ) = 1/3 (roughly)
P( leave shot & get hit ) = (4/9)*(1/3) = 15%

Using the Kleinman count gives us about a 93% chance to win in those cases where we are missed. This assumes we can enter a straight race, an assumption that is not always true. I ignore the root numbers that could leave a straggler subject to a second shot. Since XG will have cube access no matter what we decide now, getting hit means we lose.

P( not hit ) = 85%
P( win race ) = 93%
P( win ) = 85% * 93% = 79%

Looks like a perfect double.

Double

Mike

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