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Doubling with just 22.3% chance of winning

Posted By: bb766
Date: Friday, 19 July 2013, at 3:47 a.m.

In Response To: Doubling with just 22.3% chance of winning (Bob Koca)

"I'll let you try to continue the analysis from there."

It took a while, but it finally clicked. All these calculations are why I'll probably never choose to "evolve" to the advanced level!

I'm in the lead (2-0 match to 7), cube at 4. GnuBG was redoubling to 8 with just 22.3% chance to win the game, putting the match on the line with this game.

At 2 - 0, if GnuBG doubles it has a 22.3% MWC.
No double and win it's up 3away 5away (64.77% MWC)------.223*.6477=.1444
No double and lose, it's down 7away 1away (9.28% MWC)---.777*.0928=.0721
Adding the two gives only 21.65% chance of winning by Not doubling, so doubling is correct.

At 1 - 0 if GnuBG doubles, it also has a 22.3% MWC.
No double and win, it's up 3away 6away (71.16% MWC)-----.223*.7116=.1587
No double and lose, it's down 7away 2away (15.79% MWC)--.777*.1579=.1227
Adding the two gives a 28.14% chance of winning by Not doubling, so doubling is wrong.

When I switch the analysis to show MWC, my numbers correspond to GnuBG's analysis.

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