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How do you weigh risk vs. reward here?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 26 July 2013, at 6:23 p.m.

In Response To: How do you weigh risk vs. reward here? (Klaus Evers)

Well I don't think the 3 donkeys to answer so far have got the play right so how could you listen to their advice? (Sorry all, I haven't called anyone a donkey on the forums in a while and wouldn't want the elitist feel of the forums to get lost in the mix)

How do you know what to play in these types of positions? Do as you're doing, examine them when they come up and try to log the important factors and remember what is correct. I don't think there's any magical 10% formula = play safe, leading by less, play bold, etc... There are way too many factors that weigh in to these positions to simplify to such an extent.

I do take note of the race, of course, then I move on to comparing the strength of our board compared to our opponent's. If the position were this for an extreme example:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 133
7 point match
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBBC---B-bB---ddd------:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Clearly, we would be hitting. When we're hit back we come right in and hope to keep pounding away against a blot somewhere until we achieve a close out. In your position the opponent has a pretty decent board but we still have him outboarded. On top of that, there are still plenty of gammons to be won if we close him out immediately. If you know your reference positions you would know that if we close him out now without him moving another checker we should win in the ballpark of 43% gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 107
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 60
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCB--A--b----b-bbbbb--:1:-1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.XG Roller++9/6eq: +1.351
Player:
Opponent:
96.92% (G:42.32% B:0.09%)
3.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now, if we get hit it hurts but how badly does it sting? Eh...so so. There's a lot of life after death. It's not like we get hit and BAM! like Batman the game is over. Again, if this was the position I would sure make a safer play.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 103
7 point match
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBBC---B-bB----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

It does without saying (as I say it) that since you posted an AtS position you should make sure to take those factors into account should they apply. Your gammon value and recube take point being the most important. They are close enough to normal to ignore them here though if I had to lean ever so slightly in any direction it would be a more gammonish play.

Other random factors that will weigh in are for example:

  • How deep are we hitting loose in our inner board? The deeper we hit the better it generally is for us (assuming an otherwise closed board) because even if he does come in and hit back he'll be stuck behind a stronger prime
  • How often do we cover when missed? This is a key in this position esp. on making the right play I believe.
  • How close is the race. While there is no magic 10% rule the closer the race the more bold of a play we are more likely to make not owning the cube. This is to stymie any later use of the cube by allowing him to escape in a semi close race and give him the rest of the game to catch up and find a decent recube.

For this specific example we have to worry about covers and number of blots left if we do hit. My knee jerk reaction was to hit, then the 4 became forced. How to best play the two? Well, we want direct covers so 10/8 is an option but that opens up the window to 3 blots hanging around when we are hit and a lot less life after death if we slip into a hit/fan sequence. It's more like death after life as we may leave our opp. a position open to playing on. Wanting the covers but not the blots since our opp's board is strong enough leaves only one play remaining with a leg to stand on. 6/2* 4/2. This combines giving us a lot of covers without scattering 3 blots around to possibly be picked up.

The safer plays here like two down from the midpoint or 10/4 leave shots themselves and also risk leaving more indirects in the future. On top of that they allow the opponent to move every turn greatly reducing the gammons opposed to if we go after him now. We aren't likely to simply PoH for a long time because we don't have the builders in place. By the time they might be in place or we have a lucky shake the gammons will be reduced to basically zippo.

This, to me, is an obvious exception to 'make the dmp play'. At dmp I know I play 10/4 but I feel there is a huge gammon swing if we chase him down now rather than piddling around.

Stick

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