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How to play with one primed straggler?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 27 July 2013, at 11:39 p.m.

In Response To: How to play with one primed straggler? (Bob Koca)

If you play 3/1(2) and White completes the closeout with perfect distribution, you win about 6%. The closeout is very likely but it will probably be with less than perfect distribution, so I'll guess you will have 8% with this play.

You could also try 23/22x 3/1 2/1. White will be forced to hit with 5 numbers and give you a chance to anchor. Anchoring on the 22-point would help your game a lot while making the 24 or 23 point would leave you with roughly the same 8% you get from not hitting. OTOH, you will lose a lot if you fail to anchor or anchor but get trapped off and get 2 checkers closed out. That would probably leave you with about 1% chances.

I think you're more likely to anchor than not so I think the gain outweighs the loss. Plus some opponents will hit with all eleven 3s from the bar, which I think would be a mistake.

23/22x 3/1 2/1.

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