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BGonline.org Forums
OTB (warning.... Spoilers). Thoughts?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: OTB (warning.... Spoilers). Thoughts? (Rod)
Date: Wednesday, 31 July 2013, at 4:10 p.m.
I never said there may not be more merit to making the 4pt than the bot shows just noted the impossibility of it being correct based on immediate reply errors alone. I had also looked at the plays on XGR++ and the error is .093 instead of 3 ply's .073. I don't know why in such a complicated position, esp. if you're going to go as far in to depth with one play v. another, you wouldn't look at it on a higher analysis when it takes but a few seconds.
If you want to get super fancy with word play a blunder is actually a small area of equity as then we move on to whopper and double blunder or whopper with cheese.
It is also dangerous to decide on a play, find out it's an error of any magnitude, and try to back track after the fact into forcing that play to be correct. If that had been part of your initial argument for the play it would be a different story.
Now I realize I'm not your average player for this experiment but I looked at the next roll assuming we play the 42 by making the 4pt. Here's how I would group them.
- [11 22 33 44 55 66 21 31 41 51 61 32 52 62 43 53 63 54 64 65]
Those are all rolls where the correct play is so obvious BenF would get it right or if he chose an inferior play it would be a small error, under .020. You may notice the only roll I didn't list is 42. The other 34 rolls are there. Where in the world are you seeing tough replies after making the 4pt?? I'd suggest others do this experiment and tell me if I'm over simplifying or the plays are somehow harder than they seem. I don't see it.
Stick
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