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Possible re-re-re to 8

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 3:04 a.m.

In Response To: Possible re-re-re to 8 (roadkillbooks)

This looks like a straightforward EPC and ME computation, so I'll give it a shot. If I turn out to be way off, blame Stick for I studied his EPC lesson to death.

Brown is a simple stack and straggler position, so the EPC is 3.5*13+13=58.5.

White is almost a 7-roll position which is 50 plus a penalty. How much do we need to add? Pip count/number of checkers~=3 so given that the number of remaining checkers is even we need to add 3 to the EPC. However, this would have been the actual EPC count in case the white checker on the 6 pt was on the 5 pt. In the OP any 5 is a miss, so keeping in mind that any miss adds 0.2 I'd estimate the actual white EPC as 50+3+2=55.

(Again, if I made any errors here, it's Stick's fault!)

Now, with EPC of 55 for white, the point of last take for money for brown would be 55+[(55-1)/7-3]=59. Since brown EPC is 58.5, I'd estimate white winning chances as just below 78.5%, say 77-78%.

Next, I won't bore you with the standard take point computation since this isw going to be a dead cube if redoubled. The point of last take for brown is about 16%, while he has at least 22% chance in the OP.

Finally, to the cube action. The take is clear; the redouble is not. If I knew OtB that brown take point is 16% (I looked it up in MET, to be honest), then I would hold off the cube if I felt that I was a stronger player. Thus, if I thought that my opponent played a little better than a drunk monkey, I would definitely ship the thing.

P.S. Blame Canada Stick!!!

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