Opening 43 — 8-away, 5-away — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 167

9 point match

pip: 167
score: 1

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:1:4:0:9:10

Blue to play 43

Rollout¹

13/10 13/9

eq: +0.1544

Player:
Opponent:

50.00% (G:15.58% B:0.77%)
50.00% (G:14.33% B:1.01%)

Conf.: ±0.0047 (+0.1497...+0.1590) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes

Rollout¹

24/21 13/9

eq: +0.1452 (-0.0092)

Player:
Opponent:

50.14% (G:14.40% B:0.66%)
49.86% (G:13.88% B:0.82%)

Conf.: ±0.0046 (+0.1406...+0.1498) - [0.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes

Rollout²

24/20 13/10

eq: +0.1376 (-0.0168)

Player:
Opponent:

50.07% (G:13.90% B:0.64%)
49.93% (G:13.90% B:0.76%)

Conf.: ±0.0079 (+0.1297...+0.1455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 53 seconds

Rollout²

24/21 24/20

eq: +0.1143 (-0.0400)

Player:
Opponent:

50.05% (G:12.44% B:0.63%)
49.95% (G:13.81% B:0.62%)

Conf.: ±0.0076 (+0.1067...+0.1219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 08 seconds

¹ 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Dmitriy Obukhov
2013-Feb-07
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.192.pre-release
MET: Kazaross XG2
43.–8–5-do-xgp
–8–5 [D Z9 S17 U40] "<=15*5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another One for the XG Opening Book

This is one of the new rollouts Dmitriy made for the XG Opening Book. Judging by it, Julien Fetterlein did indeed make a small mistake by splitting to the 20pt on the opening roll. A better split would have been to the 21pt. Trailing as he is, however, the best play is the gammon-go play of bringing two checkers down from the midpoint.

If you would like to help with the Opening Book project, please send a note to Miran Tuhtan, Dmitriy Obukhov, or me. We are pretty well complete for the opening roll at all scores 9-away and below. For the second roll, we have just about finished assembling rollouts of the four main scores: UG, DMP, GG, and GS. If you have a rollout of any of these positions, however, we would still be interested to add it. XG allows you to include multiple rollouts of a given position in the Opening Book. It uses its own algorithm to select specific lines from each rollout, and display them in XG.

The next big push is for 3rd roll in unlimited games. It represents a quantum leap in the quantity of rollouts. As Nack Ballard frequently points out, there are 28 opening rolls within 0.02 of best. There are perhaps 630 replies within 0.01. Mulitiplying by 21 gives you over 13,000 possible 3rd roll positions, but that’s only if you rollout the top reply in each. A better estimate is around double or triple that number. Call it 30,000 or 40,000. That way, when a player selects the 2nd- or 3rd-best play on the second roll, we will have a rollout for the third roll in the Opening Book. You can see, we are going to need a lot of help if we are to complete our ambitions!

Right now, the project is at a lull, as we put the finishing touches on 1st- and 2nd-roll positions. If you can help out, however, we will include you in the plans we are making for the 3rd roll. You can make as many or as few rollouts as you wish. And in case you have a rollout already completed of a 1st-, 2nd-, or 3rd-roll position (at any score), please send it to me.

Thanks.

Mike

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