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54S-51H-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 3 August 2013, at 11:52 p.m.

In Response To: 54S-51H-21.–10–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open (Taper_Mike)

Position ID: 0PPgATDg8+ABUA Match ID: cAkFAAAAAAAA

54S-51H-21 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc	685419290	–263.602	[U W1 %9 S20] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc	687534319	–260.006	[U W9 %18 S18] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–223.0	[U W6 %13 S26] "&e	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	16954706	–218.0	[W U14 %20 S45] "<=31*15 5	Taper_Mike (below)

54S-51H-21 — According to Score

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	685325885	–81.935	–10–5 [W U3 %7 S13] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval, MET: Kazaross XG2	[XGR++ seed]	–47.5	–10–5 [W %5 U15 S17] "&e	Taper_Mike (below)

Key: $ = Slot = W = Wild [bar/23, 6/5], % = Alternate slot [bar/24, 6/4], S = Split = Z = Reverse split [bar/24, 13/11], U = Up [bar/22]

Explanation of nacbracs

Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein
London Open 2013
Semi-final match
YouTube video at 44:05

In unlimited games, the XG rollout is clear. Slotting the 4pt is a small mistake.

At this score, however, Julian Fetterlein’s slot of the 4pt is fine. Trailing by as much as he does, either slotting play is decidedly better than the alternatives of playing up or splitting. That said, my preference is for slotting the 5pt.

It is interesting to compare this position with 43S-51H-21, something that came up in the very next game of Julian’s match with Raj Jansari.

Mike

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10-away, 5-away

XG Roller++ Eval

White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 161 11 point match pip: 163 score: 1 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-b----E-D---dD---d-da---AA:0:0:1:21:1:6:0:11:10 Blue to play 21

1. XG Roller++ Bar/23 6/5 eq: -0.048 Player: Opponent: 45.21% (G:11.36% B:0.46%) 54.79% (G:16.87% B:0.85%) 2. XG Roller++ Bar/24 6/4 eq: -0.053 (-0.005) Player: Opponent: 44.58% (G:11.76% B:0.47%) 55.42% (G:16.18% B:0.86%) 3. XG Roller++ Bar/22 eq: -0.063 (-0.015) Player: Opponent: 44.65% (G:10.82% B:0.40%) 55.35% (G:15.59% B:0.60%) 4. XG Roller++ Bar/24 13/11 eq: -0.064 (-0.017) Player: Opponent: 44.24% (G:11.89% B:0.46%) 55.76% (G:16.56% B:0.87%)

Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein London Open 2013 Semi-final match http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOvyOTOOCOU&t=44m5s Eval by Taper_Mike 2013-Jul-31 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 54S-51H-21.-10-5-tm.xgp -10-5 [W %5 U15 S17] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Unlimited Games

31k Rollout

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-b----E-D---dD---d-da---AA:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 21

1. Rollout1 Bar/23 6/5 eq: -0.218 Player: Opponent: 45.35% (G:12.03% B:0.57%) 54.65% (G:17.43% B:0.83%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.221...-0.215) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 31 minutes 2. Rollout1 Bar/22 eq: -0.232 (-0.014) Player: Opponent: 44.74% (G:11.52% B:0.51%) 55.26% (G:16.52% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.235...-0.229) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 08 minutes 3. Rollout2 Bar/24 6/4 eq: -0.238 (-0.020) Player: Opponent: 44.71% (G:12.34% B:0.60%) 55.29% (G:17.23% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.243...-0.233) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 00 minute 4. Rollout3 Bar/24 13/11 eq: -0.263 (-0.045) Player: Opponent: 44.08% (G:12.45% B:0.59%) 55.92% (G:17.30% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.272...-0.255) - [0.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 09 seconds   1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16954706 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16954706 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16954706 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2013-Jul-18 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 54S-51H-21-tm.xgp [W U14 %20 S45] "<=31*15 5 [U W6 %13 S26] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 54S-51H-21.–10–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
  Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 31 July 2013, at 9:04 p.m.
  • 54S-51H-21.–10–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
    Igor -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 3:19 a.m.
    • 54S-51H-21.–10–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
      Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 4:23 a.m.
      • 54S-51H-21.–10–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
        Igor -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 4:30 a.m.
  • 54S-51H-21.–10–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 2 August 2013, at 6:05 a.m.
  • 54S-51H-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 3 August 2013, at 11:52 p.m.