So, this is an early game almost blitz type position, white has 3 checkers back after slotting, however, the blitz is protected, as you have both the 4 and 5 pts slotted in opps homeboard. The theory here is that even though it doesnt look very dangerous, when it fails, it will more typically fail with you anchoring high in your opps board, creating a stronger defensive position (from which you can continue to attack aggressively).
This is (as Stick pointed out) very close to a solid reference position.
You may also notice some similarities to the more typical 55 blitz games (one on the bar, one on the bar point, midpoint and 8 as effective shooters). This mirrors this, in that the gammon losses are high with fewer builders, however, as I mentioned above, its more protected. This should be an easy aggressive double, and drop - both are clear here (I think).
So, dont be fooled by this type of position - it may look short of strength, but when it fails, its still strong, and blue here will be blasting away until white anchors.
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| XGID=aa--B-EaB---eD---b-eAA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.49% (G:32.87% B:2.14%) | 68.85% (G:35.97% B:2.29%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.51% (G:6.02% B:0.25%) | 31.15% (G:6.03% B:0.30%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.657 | +1.393 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.866 (-0.134) | ±0.018 (+0.848..+0.884) |
| Double/Take: | +1.145 (+0.145) | ±0.024 (+1.121..+1.170) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 22022732 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
For reference, the position below is again an easy double, and a take-it-or-leave-it take/drop (note the big difference since the checkers are now anchored on opps acepoint).
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| XGID=aa--B-EaB---eD---b-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.41% (G:32.77% B:2.14%) | 66.67% (G:33.86% B:1.82%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.59% (G:6.90% B:0.31%) | 33.33% (G:6.88% B:0.32%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.605 | +1.236 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.816 (-0.184) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.001 (+0.001) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Additionally, as soon as you spread the builders off the 6pt (just moving a spare to the 8!) it becomes a good pass again.
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| XGID=aa--B-DaC---eD---b-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.64% (G:32.56% B:2.19%) | 67.65% (G:33.66% B:2.03%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.36% (G:6.52% B:0.28%) | 32.35% (G:6.47% B:0.30%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.632 | +1.284 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.858 (-0.142) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.054 (+0.054) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
So, how do you know when its a take then? Good question. Its a take only when the 8pt is stripped, theres nothing else, and the attacker is anchored on the ace - and thats marginal, everything better than that. Any checker movement in the outfield, any spread into the homeboard, and any extra hitter make it a pass.
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| XGID=a---B-DaB---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.12% (G:26.29% B:0.90%) | 63.12% (G:26.80% B:0.88%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.88% (G:7.74% B:0.33%) | 36.88% (G:7.79% B:0.35%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.453 | +0.916 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.661 | |
| Double/Take: | +0.653 (-0.008) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.339) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.3% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In the above position, small No Double, easy take. Any improvement makes it a double.
My last note on these: The race is a major factor in all these positions. As soon as the race is even, then the take becomes easier, when the race is lopsided, then the drop gets easier. When deciding when to double, always, ALWAYS remember this game is ultimately a race.
Keene