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Cube action - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 13 August 2013, at 2:20 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action (Keene)

So, this is an early game almost blitz type position, white has 3 checkers back after slotting, however, the blitz is protected, as you have both the 4 and 5 pts slotted in opps homeboard. The theory here is that even though it doesnt look very dangerous, when it fails, it will more typically fail with you anchoring high in your opps board, creating a stronger defensive position (from which you can continue to attack aggressively).

This is (as Stick pointed out) very close to a solid reference position.

You may also notice some similarities to the more typical 55 blitz games (one on the bar, one on the bar point, midpoint and 8 as effective shooters). This mirrors this, in that the gammon losses are high with fewer builders, however, as I mentioned above, its more protected. This should be an easy aggressive double, and drop - both are clear here (I think).

So, dont be fooled by this type of position - it may look short of strength, but when it fails, its still strong, and blue here will be blasting away until white anchors.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 178
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa--B-EaB---eD---b-eAA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.49% (G:32.87% B:2.14%) 68.85% (G:35.97% B:2.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.51% (G:6.02% B:0.25%) 31.15% (G:6.03% B:0.30%)
Cubeless Equities +0.657 +1.393
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.866 (-0.134)0.018 (+0.848..+0.884)
Double/Take:+1.145 (+0.145)0.024 (+1.121..+1.170)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22022732
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

For reference, the position below is again an easy double, and a take-it-or-leave-it take/drop (note the big difference since the checkers are now anchored on opps acepoint).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 178
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa--B-EaB---eD---b-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.41% (G:32.77% B:2.14%) 66.67% (G:33.86% B:1.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.59% (G:6.90% B:0.31%) 33.33% (G:6.88% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.605 +1.236
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.816 (-0.184)
Double/Take:+1.001 (+0.001)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Additionally, as soon as you spread the builders off the 6pt (just moving a spare to the 8!) it becomes a good pass again.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 178
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa--B-DaC---eD---b-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.64% (G:32.56% B:2.19%) 67.65% (G:33.66% B:2.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.36% (G:6.52% B:0.28%) 32.35% (G:6.47% B:0.30%)
Cubeless Equities +0.632 +1.284
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.858 (-0.142)
Double/Take:+1.054 (+0.054)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

So, how do you know when its a take then? Good question. Its a take only when the 8pt is stripped, theres nothing else, and the attacker is anchored on the ace - and thats marginal, everything better than that. Any checker movement in the outfield, any spread into the homeboard, and any extra hitter make it a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---B-DaB---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.12% (G:26.29% B:0.90%) 63.12% (G:26.80% B:0.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.88% (G:7.74% B:0.33%) 36.88% (G:7.79% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities +0.453 +0.916
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.661
Double/Take:+0.653 (-0.008)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.339)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.3%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In the above position, small No Double, easy take. Any improvement makes it a double.

My last note on these: The race is a major factor in all these positions. As soon as the race is even, then the take becomes easier, when the race is lopsided, then the drop gets easier. When deciding when to double, always, ALWAYS remember this game is ultimately a race.

Keene

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