I put this position, one player at a time, to a small group of experienced players, and quickly got three different plays. One of them, regarded as one of the better (if not one of the best) players here in the UK, seemed to feel quite strongly about POH. Maybe it's QF? One has to respect the honesty of the two responses on this forum, as POH is very wrong. My actual play against XG, priming, was not very much better. I did a big rollout to confirm the margins:
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 134 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aC-CBC---bB---bbcAbb-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 | eq: +0.4019 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.57% (G:14.63% B:0.45%)
40.43% (G:6.96% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.3998...+0.4040) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/5 | eq: +0.2824 (-0.1195) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.51% (G:19.69% B:1.34%)
42.49% (G:16.69% B:0.92%) | Conf.: ±0.0029 (+0.2795...+0.2853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/3* 4/3 | eq: +0.2084 (-0.1935) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.08% (G:20.38% B:1.32%)
44.92% (G:15.41% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ±0.0026 (+0.2058...+0.2109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes |
|
| 4. | 1-ply | 8/7 6/3* | eq: -0.3325 (-0.7344) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.47% (G:12.26% B:0.61%)
57.53% (G:23.08% B:1.60%) | |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 24/23 6/3* | eq: -0.3647 (-0.7666) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.93% (G:11.91% B:0.60%)
58.07% (G:24.55% B:1.52%) | |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16324568
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10