It looks like a perfect example of a tempo hit as all those white builders look pretty menacing. However, the rollout suggest otherwise. Looks like we might end up at the wrong end of a blot hitting melee with white's 5pt made and quite a bit more flexible structure up front.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 152 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---EBBA--cC--ac-cc---AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/8 | eq: -0.490 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.59% (G:11.09% B:0.55%)
60.41% (G:23.17% B:1.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.496...-0.485) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/1* | eq: -0.510 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.13% (G:10.79% B:0.48%)
60.87% (G:23.60% B:1.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.516...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25949992
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Relieving the pressure on out 22pt just a tad makes hitting wrong by quite a big margin:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---EBBA--cC---d-cc---AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/8 | eq: -0.411 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.08% (G:11.39% B:0.57%)
58.92% (G:21.20% B:1.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.419...-0.404) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/1* | eq: -0.464 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.03% (G:10.46% B:0.40%)
59.97% (G:21.21% B:1.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.472...-0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Keeping the fourth white builder for the 4pt but not pointing directly to our blot on 22pt makes hitting go down in value compared to OP but up in value compared to the previous variant with three builders:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---EBBA--cC-a-c-cc---AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/8 | eq: -0.424 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.73% (G:11.78% B:0.63%)
59.27% (G:21.65% B:1.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.432...-0.415) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/1* | eq: -0.469 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.84% (G:11.06% B:0.51%)
60.16% (G:21.68% B:1.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.477...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Finally, putting pressure on our 9pt blot makes hitting almost correct:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a--EBBA--cC--ac-cc---AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/8 | eq: -0.576 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.27% (G:9.70% B:0.49%)
62.73% (G:23.71% B:1.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.579...-0.573) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/1* | eq: -0.584 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.71% (G:9.48% B:0.41%)
63.29% (G:25.10% B:1.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.589...-0.579) - [0.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes |
|
| |
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10