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501 Essential Backgammon Problems #40  RO + Variant
Posted By: Igor
Date: Monday, 26 August 2013, at 1:43 p.m.
In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #40 (Igor)
I have nothing to add to Mike's excellent analysis.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159Unlimited Game
Jacobypip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bEDAeCceB:0:0:1:61:0:0:1:0:10 Blue to play 61
1. Rollout^{1} 11/4 eq: 0.284
Player:
Opponent:43.60% (G:8.37% B:0.29%)
56.40% (G:14.25% B:0.47%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.287...0.281)  [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 24/18 11/10 eq: 0.293 (0.008)
Player:
Opponent:43.22% (G:8.72% B:0.32%)
56.78% (G:14.32% B:0.60%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.296...0.289)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 13/7 8/7 eq: 0.301 (0.016)
Player:
Opponent:43.05% (G:8.93% B:0.33%)
56.95% (G:14.27% B:0.58%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.306...0.295)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes4. Rollout^{2} 24/23 24/18 eq: 0.304 (0.019)
Player:
Opponent:43.19% (G:7.65% B:0.29%)
56.81% (G:14.54% B:0.54%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.309...0.299)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes5. Rollout^{3} 24/18 8/7 eq: 0.320 (0.036)
Player:
Opponent:43.10% (G:8.72% B:0.34%)
56.90% (G:16.64% B:0.85%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.328...0.312)  [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 47 seconds^{1} 25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18260878
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18260878
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{3} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18260878
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Here is a variant to show that (non)stripping the midpoint is what makes the difference.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159Unlimited Game
Jacobypip: 165
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bECAeDceB:0:0:1:61:0:0:1:0:10 Blue to play 61
1. Rollout^{1} 13/7 8/7 eq: 0.317
Player:
Opponent:42.87% (G:8.32% B:0.31%)
57.13% (G:14.85% B:0.59%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.321...0.314)  [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute2. Rollout^{1} 11/4 eq: 0.331 (0.014)
Player:
Opponent:42.51% (G:7.81% B:0.28%)
57.49% (G:14.78% B:0.50%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.334...0.328)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 24/23 24/18 eq: 0.337 (0.019)
Player:
Opponent:42.43% (G:7.17% B:0.28%)
57.57% (G:15.27% B:0.60%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.344...0.329)  [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 28 seconds4. Rollout^{2} 24/18 11/10 eq: 0.338 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:42.33% (G:8.40% B:0.33%)
57.67% (G:15.38% B:0.63%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.346...0.331)  [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 16 seconds5. Rollout^{2} 24/23 13/7 eq: 0.364 (0.046)
Player:
Opponent:41.69% (G:9.14% B:0.34%)
58.31% (G:16.10% B:0.77%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.371...0.356)  [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 07 seconds^{1} 25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77695334
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67453503
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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