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***Rollout***

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Friday, 30 August 2013, at 2:02 a.m.

In Response To: Bearin' in (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Original position:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 40
5 point match
pip: 59
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-F-C------------a--caccbbA:1:-1:-1:62:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout19/1eq: +0.364
Player:
Opponent:
54.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.53% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.361...+0.367) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8.9 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 4/2eq: +0.336 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
53.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.86% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.333...+0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.1 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 5/3eq: +0.318 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
52.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.315...+0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.3 seconds
4.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: +0.230 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
49.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
50.72% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.227...+0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6.3 seconds
5.Rollout19/3 2/Offeq: +0.080 (-0.284)
Player:
Opponent:
42.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.077...+0.083) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.8 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

With one less checker off it is very close:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 41
5 point match
pip: 59
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-G-C------------a--caccbbA:1:-1:-1:62:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout19/1eq: +0.551
Player:
Opponent:
60.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.79% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.550...+0.552) - [85.8%]
Duration: 5.9 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 5/3eq: +0.549 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
60.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.546...+0.553) - [14.1%]
Duration: 4.8 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 4/2eq: +0.548 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
59.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.60% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.547...+0.550) - [0.1%]
Duration: 6.0 seconds
4.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: +0.399 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
55.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.63% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.396...+0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.2 seconds
5.Rollout19/3 2/Offeq: +0.232 (-0.319)
Player:
Opponent:
47.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.229...+0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.1 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In original problem Blue played 9/1 and White fanned. Cube? Don't think too hard, it doesn't matter.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 40
5 point match
pip: 51
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-F-C---------------caccbcA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 29.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.396 +0.929
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7680.002 (+0.765..+0.770)
Redouble/Take:+0.766 (-0.002)0.003 (+0.763..+0.769)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.232)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:79.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

If cube/no cube is borderline after 9/1, it is surely no cube after 9/3 5/3.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 40
5 point match
pip: 51
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-F-C---------------c-cebbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 64.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 35.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.300 +0.692
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6430.003 (+0.641..+0.646)
Redouble/Take:+0.501 (-0.142)0.004 (+0.498..+0.505)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.357)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Cube action in a position where Blue played 9/1, and White has one less checker off:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 41
5 point match
pip: 51
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-G-C---------------caccbcA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.542 +1.256
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.850 (-0.150)0.002 (+0.849..+0.852)
Redouble/Take:+1.133 (+0.133)0.003 (+1.130..+1.137)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

And after 9/3 5/3:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 41
5 point match
pip: 51
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-G-C---------------c-cebbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 27.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.451 +1.042
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.765 (-0.125)0.002 (+0.763..+0.767)
Redouble/Take:+0.8910.004 (+0.887..+0.894)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.109)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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