Lopsided cube -- elo difference
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Lopsided cube -- elo difference (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 31 August 2013, at 4:18 p.m.
In Response To: Lopsided cube -- elo difference (Jason Lee)
I would look at the immediate sequences where things go bad for White which is [65 64 54] 6 numbers that leave a shot and then you're hit 1/3rd of the time or 2 games. You don't win all those games though with the open 2pt and the opponent having a couple off so I'd say 1.5 wins for Blue here.
Now, when that or clearing doublets [66 55 44] doesn't happen we arrive at the same situation. Either the spare is removed from the 6pt and we now have [61 51 41 62 52 42] as bad numbers or we keep it and repeat. I'm only roughly estimating here so I'd cut some not so exact corners saying in the remaining 27 games we leave a shot we leave a shot 9 games and are hit in 3 of them. We don't come near winning all of those either since now he likely has more men off (esp. if we hit the sequence in between where White rolled double small and took more men off) so I'd WAG as 2 out of these 3 games. This is all the wins for Blue.
Tally it up, 3.5 games for Blue or ~9-10%. Somewhere in there seems right. Since recubing means auto recube + match our take point is the same as the equity at 7a 1a C or 9%. Sounds like we may have technically found that impossible window. (Assuming we aren't too good which I don't think we are with the fairly low amount of Gs involved compared to the immediate and recurring risk of that 9-10% loss and low gv)
If Blue has a 200 elo advantage it's a brick in the water drop.
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