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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 2 September 2013, at 2:46 p.m.

In Response To: Action recube...almost home (neilkaz)

OTB I was quickly sure that this was a recube after having run from his 5 pt with my nickels. I have some P&P's, some joker doubles and some rolls like 65 that leave a single shot and hopefully no more later. Bill's open 5 pt means that if he hits me, he may not cover it and I could slime home after being hit.

I figured that I was winning no worse than 2/3 of all games and certainly winning more G's than he so the recube seemed clear noting serious volatility.

He took, of course, and the sequence of 21-32-64 didn't help me, and I was hit and then G'd for match.




White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 110
9 point match
pip: 52
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CG-aCa---B--a---bababbb--:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.845% (G:16.792% B:0.095%) 67.061% (G:16.936% B:0.358%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.155% (G:4.795% B:0.160%) 32.939% (G:4.576% B:0.182%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4650 +0.9403
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.5787 (-0.1517)±0.0036 (+0.5750..+0.5823)
Redouble/Take:+0.7304±0.0054 (+0.7250..+0.7357)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2696)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.193.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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