OTB & RO

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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 13 September 2013, at 3:49 a.m.

In Response To: 22 at DMP (John O'Hagan)

Had this position vs. XG and ended up settling for making the 4 and then switching points to the ace point. Didn't really like making the ace but everything else looked weaker...Leaving the blot on the 7-point gives Black a double shot and all of Black's non-hitters make a good offensive or defensive point.
What I missed is White's counterstike chances if Black hits on the 18-point. White will frequently be able to enter and hit back at a time when he has a three to one board advantage. Leaving the double shot is therefore not that risky in this position. Black's 65 and D5 hit safely but all the other hitting numbers leave White with lots of return hitters.
So 6/4(2) and 13/11 are three of the 2s. Making the 11-point with the last deuce looks better than 7/5 since it makes another point and doesn't give White any way to hit two checkers.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154

1 point match

pip: 153
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-aaB--DAB---bD--cc-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10
to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq: +0.065
Player:
Opponent: 53.24% (G:21.94% B:3.91%)
46.76% (G:16.31% B:2.52%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (+0.059...+0.071) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 7/5 6/4(2) eq: +0.048 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 52.41% (G:20.78% B:3.84%)
47.59% (G:16.66% B:2.98%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (+0.042...+0.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) eq: +0.042 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 52.12% (G:24.35% B:1.47%)
47.88% (G:13.25% B:1.70%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.037...+0.048) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 33 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/7 eq: +0.042 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 52.12% (G:18.99% B:2.32%)
47.88% (G:15.09% B:1.55%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.037...+0.048) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 17 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq: +0.028 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 51.40% (G:20.75% B:2.76%)
48.60% (G:16.20% B:2.36%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.022...+0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 45 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 6/2*(2) eq: +0.015 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent: 50.75% (G:22.95% B:2.95%)
49.25% (G:13.92% B:1.90%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (+0.009...+0.021) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 24/20(2) eq: +0.013 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 50.67% (G:15.15% B:1.14%)
49.33% (G:12.23% B:1.08%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.008...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2