Cube action ATS?
Posted By: lucky In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Monday, 16 September 2013, at 7:52 a.m.
In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)
We have 24 hitting number (66,6%) not all of which lead to a win. If we only hit one checker (would estimate that around 2/3 of our hitting scenarios we will manager to hit only one and 1/3 we will hit two checkers). Lets estimate:
Hit only one checker: We would expect to win around 96% (around 95% is for a perfect closeout without any blot on opponents side). This makes our total wins:
W1= 0,666 * 2/3 * 96% = 43%
Respectively, if we hit two checker we should win almost all games which makes our winning chances:
W1 = 0,666 * 1/3 * 99% = 22%
Total estimated wins = W1 + W2 = 65%
If I remember correctly at 3away - 7away the 4 cube take point for the trailer is 9 / 18,5 (full live cube TP/ Dead Cube TP). This position looks more like a Dead Cube so I will take as TP the 18,5%. Although I did not calculate the doubling point of the leader ATS I think this information is enough to hold the cube and take the risk to loose your market.
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