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BGonline.org Forums
Cube action ATS?
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Monday, 16 September 2013, at 11:03 p.m.
Lets assume we never lose a G when we miss since it seems so rare. Lets also assume that we never win when we miss and keep the cube since that looks to be very rare.
If we cube we can expect to win 23 of 24 hits and we lose 12 misses. Thus by cubing now we win 29 of 36 matches.
If we hold the cube we win every hit. 24 x .907 is about 21.75 matches
A 4-2 lead to 7 gives us 64.8%. 64.8 x 12 is about 7.75 matches.
OK to me it seems that we win 29 matches out of 36 if we double and 29.5 out of 36 if we keep the cube.
The tiny chance to lose a G will make cubing worse since it costs us the match and the tiny chance to steal the race after missing will make cubing worse since that chance doesn't exist when our opp holds the cube.
NO RECUBE here
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