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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 17 September 2013, at 5:17 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (HOMINID)


Well, I believe I saw the gist of your argument, but I think that when one intentionally makes 6.67% errors in estimates of GWC and happens to arrive at a correct cube action, one might not then conclude that any old sloppy calculations will always do. They won't.

One thing to note in John's analysis is that if White loses just one game of the 24 in 36 games that end with the cube on 8 (thus losing 65% match equity instead of 15% in that game), that makes a very big difference in determining the bottom of White's doubling window. Contrast the precision that allows a player like John to make, with your own justification, which was that "FROM A MWC POINT OF VIEW NO CUBE IS BEST [because] IT KEEPS WHITE VERY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE MATCH. RATHER THAN LEAVING THE OUTCOME TO THE VAGERIES OF THE DICE." If White could count on winning all 24 of those games, he would have had a proper redouble. You, on the other hand, essentially arrived at the correct "no double" decision by greatly underestimating White's winning chances.

I think you also greatly underestimate the ability of some open players to do match equity calculations quickly and accurately in live tournaments -- the calculations one might do for this position are not difficult for practiced players.

About the gammons, yes, they are rare but no, the cube does not always automatically go to 8. Brown has a free play-on for gammon instead of cashing four points if White rolls 11 12 or 22 or, according to Bob, also 52 and 54.

I will agree that in backgammon, pigs do sometimes fly.

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