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Rollout Help

Posted By: AP
Date: Wednesday, 18 September 2013, at 4:03 a.m.

I am very new to rollouts, and was hoping for some guidance on which settings to use. Here is a position from a recent game that I rolled out using different settings...and got very different results.

First rollout is cubeless, but apparently converted to cubeful at the end...second rollout is cubeful. Why is there such a big difference in cubeful equity? Are there some additional settings I missed that would help align the results? Are there some positions where cubeless rollouts are better but others where cubeful are better?





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 60
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ECaBB-B---a---a-Accbb-b--:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.78% (G:9.29% B:0.36%) 63.47% (G:9.15% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.22% (G:2.80% B:0.02%) 36.53% (G:3.20% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.304 +0.664
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.522 (-0.131)±0.007 (+0.515..+0.528)
Redouble/Take:+0.653±0.011 (+0.642..+0.664)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.347)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Cubeless
Moves: 2-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 60
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ECaBB-B---a---a-Accbb-b--:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.77% (G:8.25% B:0.28%) 63.34% (G:9.15% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.23% (G:3.04% B:0.02%) 36.66% (G:3.27% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.310 +0.658
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.490±0.003 (+0.488..+0.493)
Redouble/Take:+0.357 (-0.133)±0.008 (+0.350..+0.365)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.510)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.2%
Rollout details
5000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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