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Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 20 September 2013, at 5:22 a.m.

In Response To: rollout (KenB)

Unlimited Games

All the race formulas have this as a drop for money, and they are right.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 98
Unlimited Game
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---ACCD-A-A-bB---b-bbcbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.600% (G:0.010% B:0.000%) 78.639% (G:0.009% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.400% (G:0.004% B:0.000%) 21.361% (G:0.005% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.5721 +1.1456
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8736 (-0.1264)±0.0025 (+0.8712..+0.8761)
Double/Take:+1.0163 (+0.0163)±0.0035 (+1.0128..+1.0198)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12660394
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

One Pip Difference

A pip is all you need to make this a take. Thorp and Keith get that, but Trice and 8-9-12% still say pass.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 97
Unlimited Game
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---ACCD-AA--bB---b-bbcbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.185% (G:0.006% B:0.000%) 77.192% (G:0.006% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.815% (G:0.003% B:0.000%) 22.808% (G:0.003% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.5437 +1.0877
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8449 (-0.1075)±0.0028 (+0.8421..+0.8477)
Double/Take:+0.9523±0.0038 (+0.9486..+0.9561)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0477)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12660394
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Nice position.

Mike

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