BGonline.org Forums

Dodged a bullet to get here

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 20 September 2013, at 3:43 p.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here (Chuck Bower)

The leader's doubling window is from ~ 76% to 81%. Blue has a pips position while White has a cross between a pips and a flat positon (closer to a pips IMO). I think Blue's ahead by around 7 pips in the EPC dept so penalize White one pip. Kleinman for a 51-58 pips vs. pips race gives the leader about 77.5% chances.

If this estimate of Blue's winning chances is close to the actual, it's big no double/easy take. Not real confident that my estimate is in the ballpark, so OTB I'd follow the "when in doubt, don't double" as the leader ATS.

Messages In This Thread

• Dodged a bullet to get here
  Chuck Bower -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 12:08 p.m.
  • Dodged a bullet to get here
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 1:30 p.m.
  • Dodged a bullet to get here
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 3:43 p.m.
    • Dodged a bullet to get here
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 4:25 p.m.
      • Dodged a bullet to get here
        neilkaz -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 6:40 p.m.
        • Dodged a bullet to get here
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 7:22 p.m.
          • Dodged a bullet to get here
            neilkaz -- Friday, 20 September 2013, at 8:08 p.m.
    • Dodged a bullet to get here
      Igor -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 3:55 a.m.
      • Kleinman Count at Backgammon Galore!
        Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 5:23 a.m.
        • Kleinman Count at Backgammon Galore!
          Igor -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 3:07 p.m.
      • Dodged a bullet to get here
        Smcrtorchs -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 6:52 a.m.
        • Dodged a bullet to get here
          Igor -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 3:05 p.m.
          • Dodged a bullet to get here
            Smcrtorchs -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 6:25 p.m.
            • Dodged a bullet to get here
              Igor -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 7:13 p.m.
  • Dodged a bullet to get here
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 9:56 a.m.
  • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 5:29 p.m.
    • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 5:51 p.m.
      • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 22 September 2013, at 1:33 p.m.
        • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
          Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 22 September 2013, at 6:14 p.m.
          • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 22 September 2013, at 11:37 p.m.
            • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
              Bob koca -- Monday, 23 September 2013, at 4:06 a.m.
    • Dodged a bullet to get here - RO
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 7:33 p.m.
  • 8,9,12? ~79.5-80.5%
    Rod -- Sunday, 22 September 2013, at 7:52 p.m.