[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Dodged a bullet to get here

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 20 September 2013, at 4:25 p.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here (John O'Hagan)

I agree with your adjustment and Kleinmann technique calculation. Since one side has a hybrid position the volatility is lower which helps the leader. White is closer to a pips than a rolls position so it will be a very slight effect.

"If this estimate of Blue's winning chances is close to the actual, it's big no double/easy take."

I've done where to double an 85 pip for the leader race for 5 point match scores and found 79.5% for the leader at 4a 2a. http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes%3bread=97777 That will decrease as the race gets shorter since volatility is greater. My guess is about 78.5 - 79% for a 51 pip race for the leader.

Take and extremely close decision for the cube; I will guess no cube. In practical play doubling and hoping to get a bad drop has some merit but OTOH 90% of players are better than opponent so not cubing keeps the volatility down.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.