|
BGonline.org Forums
Responding to CMC
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: Question for CMC (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 1:15 p.m.
CMC wrote, "I know you are good enough to calculate these values yourself or look them up in an MET. :-). Why are you asking about "normal match scores"? I believe you know what is meant by "normal match score"."
I think I know what people mean when they say, "normal match scores." However, I believe there is no such thing as a normal match score. I believe the concept is seriously flawed. Each match score is unique, with its own personality and idiosyncrasies.
What is the harm in believing in normal match scores? Check out the following position from the Monte Carlo semis between Denmark's Lars Trabolt and Petko. Everyone knows this position is a pass for money. However, at -14/-11, it is an easy take. Lars is a very strong world-class player, but he got this one wrong over the board, maybe because he paid too much attention to those who preach NMS.
The NMS adherents, apparently reason like this, "We know that 63S-55A-F-C" is a pass for money and -14/-11 is a normal match score, so it must also be a pass at this score.
The same problem exists for checker plays at so-called normal match scores. Trailing by only one point in a match, you should play 64P instead of 64S with opening 64, However, if the score is tied, 64S wins the rollout.
No one has yet been willing to give a list of the scores in an 11pt match that are "normal match scores." Maybe this is because there are really no normal match scores.
White is Lars Trabolt
score: 9
pip: 15923 point match pip: 147
score: 12
Blue is Petko KostadinovXGID=aB-B--CaA---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:12:9:0:23:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.17% (G:39.84% B:1.36%) 66.38% (G:40.39% B:1.30%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.83% (G:7.87% B:0.39%) 33.62% (G:7.85% B:0.40%) Cubeless Equities +0.663 +1.324 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.788 (-0.153) ±0.014 (+0.773..+0.802) Double/Take: +0.941 ±0.020 (+0.921..+0.961) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 10 minutes 24 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
|
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.