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Dodged a bullet to get here

Posted By: Igor
Date: Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here (Smcrtorchs)

Right, Mattusek applies only to 8 checkers technically speaking, but it never hurts to see what it says in general. This time it is probably quite a bit off.

As for EPC point of last take, the only "rule" I found is # of rolls - 3. When I practiced Prop 57 I discovered that with pips vs. rolls races the pips side can double half a pip earlier and take half a pip deeper than the formula indicates. This is natural since the pips side has greater volatility than the rolls side.

I guess I need to try to include your suggested adjustment of one pip in both directions for the pips vs. pips races. With that adjustment in mind, white has just a tad over 19% winning chances, which makes it a close take.

As for the value of a pip, it's from Tom Keith's article "cube handling in noncontact positions." I have found it to be more accurate than any other "value of a pip" estimate I saw.

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