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Dodged a bullet to get here - RO

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 7:33 p.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here - RO (Chuck Bower)

Wastage is 6.92 for blue and 8.53 for white so John and I didn't adjust enough with our 1 pip adjustment.

If we change white to 0 1 2 3 4 3 then EPC is essentially the same (actually .01 higher) and now blue's win chance is 79.74% suggesting that the lower volatility of the initial position gives the leader an extra 1.2% win chance.

If we change to a very low volatility position of 6 3 4 1 and a straggler on 13 the EPC is .03 higher and now blue's win chance is 83.90% Overall keeping the EPC constant but changing from a pips to a rolls position (about as much as could be done here) is worth more than 4% to the leader.

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