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BGonline.org Forums
Sucks to be me
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Sucks to be me (Bill Calton)
Date: Sunday, 22 September 2013, at 2:55 p.m.
You have the pip lead but are outpointed in home boards and have inferior development for pointmaking. Any reasonable aggressive play leaves one additional blot exposed to multiple hitting threats. For those reasons I have to reject 13/5, 24/22 13/7 and 24/18 6/4*.
You could play to minimize blots and shots with 8/2 with a 2 (24/22 being more dangerous but more constructive than 8/6), but it still exposes a second blot and doesn't accomplish much. Leading, you want to bring the last checker home. You also want to develop some structure on the 4 through 10 points. But no plays do that.
So your play here by itself can't accomplish much offensively. Suppose instead we look at the position from your opponent's point of view? Other than attacking your one blot, or others that you leave with this play, what else does your opponent both want to do and is in a position to do often? Clearly, I think, his other big threat is to make his own bar point for a four-prime blocking your straggler.
That, your play can do something about, by somewhat negating the effectiveness of his 4-prime by advancing 24/22 8/2 (giving you sixes out), or by distracting him from making that point by running all the way with 24/16. Another play would be 24/18 8/6 — that leaves one less hit than 24/16 (and you with fewer ways to escape safely if missed), but with either play you should expect to be attacked, and being pointed or attacked on your 18 point would be worse for you than being pointed or attacked on your 16 point.
My play, then, comes down to choosing between 24/16 and 24/22 8/2, treating this 6-2 simply as a bad roll that can't be turned into a good one. I'd play 24/16, for no more more blots, for a slight chance of being missed, fully expecting to be hit, but still retaining a small race lead, distracting opponent from making his bar point, and having good chance of rolling something much better than this 6-2 from the bar next turn.
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