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OLM 2013-09-23

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 24 September 2013, at 1:49 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-09-23 (Jason Lee)

Our double-hit try for the 5 point has worked, so we will make that point with the ace.

With the five there's 23/18 which brings that spare checker to a much better place, leaves our bar point slotted but gives 14 numbers that hit that bar point blot; if it's not hit we'll have 27 ways to make our bar. Or there's 7/2* which puts a second checker on the bar, starts a home board point we want, makes it harder for White to make a second anchor, and gives only 12 numbers that hit our two point blot — all good things, but unfortunately if missed we would have only 7 ways to cover the two point.

Another flexible spare combined with a made bar point will give us a solid game, and the odds favor that after 23/18. A four point board could also be strong, despite our open four point, but after 7/2* the odds are against White missing (without making or threatening to make or eventually making our 4 point) followed by our covering the two point.

23/18 6/5.

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