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White to play 41

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Saturday, 28 September 2013, at 1:28 a.m.

In Response To: White to play 41 (John O'Hagan)

6/1* After either play, if we do not get the anti-joker roll we are hoping for (1s after 6/1*, 5s after 6/2 5/4), we need to prepare for our worse rolls. After 6/1, dance, the worst rolls are 52, 53, 55 and 32. After 6/2 5/4, no 5, any combination of 5s, 4s and 2s. 6/1* leaves less disasters, and if we get our bad sequence, we at least have opponent on the bar, a 5 point board and prime, spares on good points, and an easy follow up (either cover, run, or cover and run) if missed. After 6/2 5/4 our bad sequences really suck.

It is true that 5s after 6/2 5/4 are better for us than 1s after 6/1*, but I don't think that swings enough to the waiting play to make that correct.

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