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Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 29 September 2013, at 2:43 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race (Chris Bray)

OTB, I'd use the Keith count adjustments except for adding 1/7th to Blue's count and then use Kleinman for the adjusted pip counts. That makes it 49 to 41 which translates to about 39% chances for Blue.

I think Blue's doubling window is from ~18% to 65%. So Blue's in the window but I don't think there are enough mkt losers to justify recubing. I'd take a roll.

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