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very simple count with no adjustments

Posted By: HOMINID
Date: Sunday, 29 September 2013, at 11:00 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race (Igor)

I do not possess a sophisticated counting system for the bear off.I do not believe one is required for this example. Maybe I should not even be expressing an opinion, as I’m missing the point of the exercise.

Blue with 3 chequers on the 6 point is obviously not favourite to win the game. None the less it’s very close. The important fact here is the match score 0-5. If I lose with no cube I am 0-9 down, I will not win from this position.If I double and lose the match is over. As I’m likely to lose I double as on occasions I will win and be 8-5 up.

I do wonder how many are capable of doing the maths OTB.DIRAC: EINSTEIN AND CRICK & WATSON used lateral thinking to solve their problems. They did the maths later.. I do understand that if your game winning chances are greater than your MWC then double. I reckon I could do the arithmetic with pencil and paper and a handy MWC table.

I will continue to rely on common sense and logic.

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