BGonline.org Forums

Rollout Result and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 1:54 p.m.

In Response To: End Game 52 (Paul Weaver)

The diagram on the right shows the position after the best play has been made. Blue volunteers 20 shots when his opponent has a five-point board. Although he gets hit more often after 13/6, Blue's race is much better when he is missed. Blue also loves to have his five-point board intact when he hits White, which happens more often than you might think.

It is helpful to divide White's numbers into five categories:

(1) Blue gets a direct shot from the bar after White rolls 42 51 53 66 (7 numbers) and (2) a direct shot (sometimes with combos) after White rolls 11 21 31 41 32 52 43 (13 numbers). (3) Blue gets hit twice with White's 22 62 (3 numbers), but at least he gets a shot from the roof. (4) Blue pays off to White's 61 63 64 33 44 (8 numbers) that hit and lift (or hit and cover). (5) White's remaining 5 numbers (54 65 55) break contact without hitting.

Figure out for yourself whether 13/6 beats 6/4 6/1 (the second best play) in each of these five categories.

 White is michy score: 0 pip: 69 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 82 score: 0 Blue is shimohei
XGID=-BBBCABa-----B-A-a-bbaccb-:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout113/6eq: -0.634
 Player:Opponent: 33.04% (G:3.31% B:0.14%)66.96% (G:8.41% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.642...-0.627) - [99.9%]Duration: 22.4 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: -0.653 (-0.018)
 Player:Opponent: 30.51% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)69.49% (G:5.05% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.662...-0.644) - [0.1%]Duration: 19.1 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 5/3eq: -0.667 (-0.032)
 Player:Opponent: 30.22% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)69.78% (G:5.51% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.676...-0.657) - [0.0%]Duration: 19.7 seconds
4.Rollout115/8eq: -0.741 (-0.107)
 Player:Opponent: 28.64% (G:1.43% B:0.05%)71.36% (G:3.76% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.750...-0.733) - [0.0%]Duration: 20.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is michy score: 0 pip: 69 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 75 score: 0 Blue is shimohei
XGID=-BBBCACa-----A-A-a-bbaccb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.61% (G:8.92% B:0.20%) 67.04% (G:8.37% B:0.18%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.39% (G:3.20% B:0.13%) 32.96% (G:3.13% B:0.14%) Cubeless Equities +0.390 +0.787 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.521 (-0.122) ±0.004 (+0.517..+0.526) Redouble/Take: +0.644 ±0.007 (+0.637..+0.651) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.356) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 42.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

• End Game 52
Paul Weaver -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 6:38 a.m.
• Rollout Result and Commentary
Paul Weaver -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 1:54 p.m.
• End Game 52
Stick -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 6:46 p.m.

Post Response

Subject:
Message: