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Accidently created a new form of competition--advice needed

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Friday, 4 October 2013, at 9:17 a.m.

In Response To: Accidently created a new form of competition--advice needed (Rod)

It gets trickier than the standard match equity table because you have to take into account not just the value of the cube now, but the value of the cube in the future games which represent the components of match equity. To take a simple example, the value of a 3-0 lead varies quite a bit depending whether the cube will start the next game on 1, 2, 4, or 8. If it starts on 8, the lead is meaningless. If it starts on 4, the lead is worth nothing more than a sort-of-free drop.

And if the cube is going to start the next game on 2, the value of the lead seems like it should vary depending on whether the starting value is going to escalate to 4 after the next game, or instead not for several more games after that.

None of this means that match equity can't be calculated, of course; it just means, as far as I know, that if you play by the rule of "starting cube value doubles every 5 games" then with each new game you need to consult an entirely new match equity chart. So not 5 new tables, but 21 (or 16 if we decide we can just stop when the cube gets to 8).

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