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Congratulations to Rod Covlin, Peoria Winner, First Place in ABT!!

Posted By: Rod
Date: Monday, 7 October 2013, at 7:12 p.m.

In Response To: Congratulations to Rod Covlin, Peoria Winner, First Place in ABT!! (Keene)

Thanks Keene. I've scheduled the next 3 and plan on the 3 after that so far. Need to keep the pressure on Neil and Ed... Maybe one of them will crack... Lol

********

I still think that the altering plays for an opponent can work in your favor.

These are the potential pitfalls, as I see them, though:

1. Misinformation (small sample size) - either from others or from yourself. I've gotten bad info in both directions both ways - people who tell me opponents are stronger or weaker than they actually are and by misanalyzing an opponent as being stronger or weaker than they actually are. When I misanalyzed Ben's playing strength in Novi it was based on watching one game of one match. Ben obviously either had a particularly bad match, bad game or simply came across a series of positions that he wasn't comfortable with and which I was. Too small a sample size. This weekend I mis-estimated one player because of an erroneous scouting report someone had given me. Unlike in Novi, I quickly realized the mistake, based, also, on too small a sample size and was able to make a few minor adjustments.

2. Misinformation (improvement) - then... If it's someone you haven't played in a while.... Well, people can improve. Even people you don't expect in marked ways. At one recent tournament I was positively shocked at the tremendous gain in performance by one player. In particular. He still took a look at the plays he would have made last time I played him but almost without fail discarded them for the stronger play. It was as nice to see as it was surprising to me.

3. Finding the "right" play - you need to be able to select the XG play to be able to adjust from there. Not always easy.

4. Determining the relative rightness between 2 (or more) plays - I was talking to falafel about a play. He said "what's the equity?" I estimated it. Not super far off. But enough where had I estimate 2 independent plays for a roll either play could be more right based on my margin of error. For what it's worth, falafel said that he has a lot of difficulty gauging exact equity. It's hard.

You put all of these together and there are several layers, each of which compounds the other, potentially.

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