Congratulations to Rod Covlin, Peoria Winner, First Place in ABT!!
Posted By: Rod In Response To: Congratulations to Rod Covlin, Peoria Winner, First Place in ABT!! (Keene)
Date: Monday, 7 October 2013, at 7:12 p.m.
In Response To: Congratulations to Rod Covlin, Peoria Winner, First Place in ABT!! (Keene)
Thanks Keene. I've scheduled the next 3 and plan on the 3 after that so far. Need to keep the pressure on Neil and Ed... Maybe one of them will crack... Lol
I still think that the altering plays for an opponent can work in your favor.
These are the potential pitfalls, as I see them, though:
1. Misinformation (small sample size) - either from others or from yourself. I've gotten bad info in both directions both ways - people who tell me opponents are stronger or weaker than they actually are and by misanalyzing an opponent as being stronger or weaker than they actually are. When I misanalyzed Ben's playing strength in Novi it was based on watching one game of one match. Ben obviously either had a particularly bad match, bad game or simply came across a series of positions that he wasn't comfortable with and which I was. Too small a sample size. This weekend I mis-estimated one player because of an erroneous scouting report someone had given me. Unlike in Novi, I quickly realized the mistake, based, also, on too small a sample size and was able to make a few minor adjustments.
2. Misinformation (improvement) - then... If it's someone you haven't played in a while.... Well, people can improve. Even people you don't expect in marked ways. At one recent tournament I was positively shocked at the tremendous gain in performance by one player. In particular. He still took a look at the plays he would have made last time I played him but almost without fail discarded them for the stronger play. It was as nice to see as it was surprising to me.
3. Finding the "right" play - you need to be able to select the XG play to be able to adjust from there. Not always easy.
4. Determining the relative rightness between 2 (or more) plays - I was talking to falafel about a play. He said "what's the equity?" I estimated it. Not super far off. But enough where had I estimate 2 independent plays for a roll either play could be more right based on my margin of error. For what it's worth, falafel said that he has a lot of difficulty gauging exact equity. It's hard.
You put all of these together and there are several layers, each of which compounds the other, potentially.
Messages In This Thread
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.