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Rollout Results and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 8 October 2013, at 6:07 p.m.

In Response To: Endgame 51 (Paul Weaver)





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 75
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-CBBBBB---------e-B-bbbbb-:1:1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout118/12eq: -0.169
Player:
Opponent:		36.52% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
63.48% (G:0.74% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.173...-0.165) - [99.9%]
Duration: 11.1 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: -0.179 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		35.37% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
64.63% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.184...-0.174) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11.7 seconds
3.Rollout118/17 18/13eq: -0.180 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		35.85% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
64.15% (G:0.73% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.184...-0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.2 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 68
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-BBBCBB---------d-B-bbbcb-:1:1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: -0.517
Player:
Opponent:		21.00% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
79.00% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.519...-0.515) - [99.7%]
Duration: 36.6 seconds
2.Rollout118/12eq: -0.521 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		21.49% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
78.51% (G:0.82% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.523...-0.519) - [0.3%]
Duration: 40.9 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 4/3eq: -0.525 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		20.63% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
79.37% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.527...-0.523) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.8 seconds
4.Rollout118/17 18/13eq: -0.542 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		20.51% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
79.49% (G:0.87% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.544...-0.541) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.9 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The position on the right came up in a real game. I played 6/1 4/3 and I noticed that 18/12 beat 18/17 18/13. I wanted to find a variation in which 18/12 was best, so I changed a couple of checkers to give Blue a better race.

18/12 beats 18/17 18/13 in both positions. A couple of people mentioned that 18/12 gets an extra crossover. This may be the main reason, but there is also an additional subtle effect in play here.

After 18/17 18/13, White will hit with aces and diversify (9/7) with deuces. After 18/12, however, White will hit with deuces, but will not be able to diversify (9/8) with most aces (61 51 41 31). White will have to play the ace inside his board instead of the more-efficient-for-the-race 9/8.Therefore, 18/12 gives White a less efficient bear in, slightly increasing White's EPC (effective pip count) and wastage.

This subtle factor is worth more than you might think, and I can prove it by showing you the same position, with Blue to play 61. Here the crossover is not the issue, but Blue still should stay on the 18pt.

Scroll down to see this rollout result.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 75
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-CBBBBB---------e-B-bbbbb-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout118/11eq: -0.120
Player:
Opponent:		38.47% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
61.53% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.121...-0.118) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
2.Rollout118/17 18/12eq: -0.124 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		38.22% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
61.78% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.125...-0.122) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.3 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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