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Look, Ma! No Nactation! — Rollout & Variations
Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 11 October 2013, at 5:42 a.m.
In Response To: Look, Ma! No Nactation! (Taper_Mike)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142Unlimited Game pip: 130
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=BbCBBBabCbbbcAa:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 66
1. Rollout^{1} 21/9 16/4 eq: +0.1960
Player:
Opponent:62.00% (G:19.02% B:1.02%)
38.00% (G:9.58% B:0.37%)Conf.: ±0.0026 (+0.1934...+0.1987)  [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 37 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 21/9 7/1(2) eq: +0.1750 (0.0210)
Player:
Opponent:62.49% (G:13.09% B:0.35%)
37.51% (G:7.46% B:0.23%)Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.1727...+0.1773)  [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 33 seconds3. Rollout^{2} 21/15 16/10(3) eq: +0.1614 (0.0346)
Player:
Opponent:62.29% (G:12.28% B:0.47%)
37.71% (G:6.57% B:0.18%)Conf.: ±0.0033 (+0.1581...+0.1648)  [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 44 seconds4. Rollout^{3} 21/15 16/10 7/1(2) eq: +0.1435 (0.0526)
Player:
Opponent:60.92% (G:14.99% B:0.38%)
39.08% (G:8.55% B:0.32%)Conf.: ±0.0042 (+0.1393...+0.1476)  [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 58 seconds5. Rollout^{3} 16/10(2) 16/4 eq: +0.0980 (0.0980)
Player:
Opponent:58.52% (G:18.20% B:0.90%)
41.48% (G:9.16% B:0.32%)Conf.: ±0.0049 (+0.0931...+0.1030)  [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 59 seconds6. Rollout^{3} 16/4(2) eq: +0.0186 (0.1774)
Player:
Opponent:55.97% (G:17.30% B:0.71%)
44.03% (G:9.92% B:0.34%)Conf.: ±0.0048 (+0.0139...+0.0234)  [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 12 seconds^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{3} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013Oct05
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000867.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Voluntary Double Shot!
I played this as a sort of modified Pottle, moving three checkers down to the 10pt, and running the last checker out to the 15pt (21/15, 16/10(3)). After that play, Blue leads the race by 36 pips, and if White misses double shot, Blue can look to completing his escape. Bringing home the position from there, however, will not be easy.The main problem is the two checkers that are locking down the 2pt. With them out of service, Blue is going to find it difficult to make his 4pt naturally. Distracted by the need to safety his last blot, the chore becomes even harder.
XG’s solution is to slot the 4pt now, and since there is nothing better, the 9pt along with it. It is a strategy that forces White to break his anchor to hit. When White does hit, there will usually be plenty of return shots.
In an exchange of hits, Blue’s made 2pt is turned from a liability into an asset. It becomes the third made point in his board. Including the blot White has on his 1pt, Blue may have three or four blots available as targets in a hitting contest.
By contrast, the running play I termed a Pottle leaves a free shot for White in the outfield, without the risk of surrendering his anchor. White would still have a blot on his 1pt to worry about, but he would have outfield control as compensation.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142Unlimited Game pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=AbCCBBabCbbbcAa:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 66
1. Rollout^{1} 21/9 7/1(2) eq: +0.1277
Player:
Opponent:59.87% (G:16.43% B:0.55%)
40.13% (G:9.16% B:0.33%)Conf.: ±0.0013 (+0.1265...+0.1290)  [55.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 21/15 16/10(3) eq: +0.1276 (0.0001)
Player:
Opponent:61.41% (G:12.00% B:0.54%)
38.59% (G:7.56% B:0.21%)Conf.: ±0.0013 (+0.1263...+0.1289)  [44.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 21/9 8/2(2) eq: +0.1161 (0.0116)
Player:
Opponent:60.13% (G:13.94% B:0.54%)
39.87% (G:8.27% B:0.28%)Conf.: ±0.0020 (+0.1142...+0.1181)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes4. Rollout^{2} 21/9 16/4 eq: +0.1150 (0.0128)
Player:
Opponent:60.69% (G:15.92% B:0.87%)
39.31% (G:11.24% B:0.40%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.1129...+0.1170)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes^{1} 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013Oct06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000868.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Blot on 2pt
Moving a checker back from the 2pt to the 6pt makes the Pottle correct.Presumably, there are three reasons: 1. Entering a hitting contest is less advantageous when you no longer have the opponent outboarded, 2. Entering a hitting contest is unwise when you have an inside blot, and 3. The chance of making the 4pt naturally is much better.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142Unlimited Game pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bCCCBabCbbbcAa:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 66
1. Rollout^{1} 21/9 8/2(2) eq: +0.1999
Player:
Opponent:62.86% (G:13.98% B:0.62%)
37.14% (G:6.75% B:0.21%)Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.1986...+0.2011)  [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 21/15 16/10(3) eq: +0.1948 (0.0051)
Player:
Opponent:64.15% (G:10.64% B:0.49%)
35.85% (G:6.44% B:0.15%)Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.1936...+0.1960)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 21/9 16/10 7/1 eq: +0.1826 (0.0172)
Player:
Opponent:63.39% (G:12.84% B:0.53%)
36.61% (G:8.45% B:0.30%)Conf.: ±0.0018 (+0.1809...+0.1844)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes4. Rollout^{3} 21/9 16/4 eq: +0.1779 (0.0219)
Player:
Opponent:62.70% (G:15.23% B:0.84%)
37.30% (G:9.34% B:0.31%)Conf.: ±0.0027 (+0.1753...+0.1806)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute^{1} 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{3} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013Oct06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000869.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
No Checkers on 2pt
Now there are plenty of ways to make the 4pt naturally.Somewhat surprisingly, XG switches from the 8pt to the 2pt. With the 9pt slotted, however, the resulting position leaves four spares bearing on the 4pt.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147Unlimited Game pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bCCCBabCbbccA:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 66
1. Rollout^{1} 21/9 8/2(2) eq: +0.0742
Player:
Opponent:59.14% (G:11.34% B:0.35%)
40.86% (G:7.79% B:0.30%)Conf.: ±0.0018 (+0.0724...+0.0760)  [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 21/9 16/10 7/1 eq: +0.0628 (0.0115)
Player:
Opponent:59.47% (G:11.19% B:0.41%)
40.53% (G:9.43% B:0.42%)Conf.: ±0.0019 (+0.0609...+0.0647)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 21/9 16/4 eq: +0.0306 (0.0437)
Player:
Opponent:58.29% (G:12.77% B:0.55%)
41.71% (G:10.35% B:0.45%)Conf.: ±0.0053 (+0.0253...+0.0358)  [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 56 seconds4. Rollout^{2} 21/15 16/10(3) eq: 0.0219 (0.0961)
Player:
Opponent:56.88% (G:8.28% B:0.32%)
43.12% (G:7.75% B:0.24%)Conf.: ±0.0045 (0.0264...0.0175)  [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 17 seconds^{1} 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013Oct06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000870.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Lots of Builders; No Blot in White’s Board
In this variation, XG again chooses a play that will force White to give up his anchor to hit.Switching to the 2pt is still on the menu.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147Unlimited Game pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=AbCCBBabCbbccA:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 66
1. Rollout^{1} 21/9 8/2(2) eq: 0.0266
Player:
Opponent:55.60% (G:11.62% B:0.32%)
44.40% (G:9.69% B:0.39%)Conf.: ±0.0019 (0.0285...0.0247)  [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 21/9 7/1(2) eq: 0.0380 (0.0114)
Player:
Opponent:54.70% (G:13.62% B:0.33%)
45.30% (G:10.63% B:0.49%)Conf.: ±0.0019 (0.0399...0.0361)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes3. Rollout^{1} 21/9 16/4 eq: 0.0420 (0.0154)
Player:
Opponent:55.52% (G:13.49% B:0.61%)
44.48% (G:11.69% B:0.55%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (0.0441...0.0399)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes4. Rollout^{2} 21/15 16/10(3) eq: 0.1176 (0.0910)
Player:
Opponent:53.42% (G:8.85% B:0.34%)
46.58% (G:8.94% B:0.31%)Conf.: ±0.0048 (0.1224...0.1127)  [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 03 seconds^{1} 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013Oct06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000872.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Still Trying for the 4pt
As long as Blue must leave a blot, placing it within direct range of the 4pt is the way to go.Counting the semiactive builders on the 7pt, Blue will have builders on four points aiming at the open 4pt. Under those conditions, he can afford to give up his 8pt in order to cover the blot on his 2pt.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147Unlimited Game pip: 135
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=AbCBCBabCbbccA:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 66
1. Rollout^{1} 21/9 16/10 7/1 eq: 0.0231
Player:
Opponent:56.65% (G:10.94% B:0.37%)
43.35% (G:10.84% B:0.51%)Conf.: ±0.0027 (0.0259...0.0204)  [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 21/9 8/2(2) eq: 0.0439 (0.0208)
Player:
Opponent:55.28% (G:10.71% B:0.29%)
44.72% (G:9.75% B:0.38%)Conf.: ±0.0028 (0.0466...0.0411)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes3. Rollout^{1} 21/9 16/4 eq: 0.0492 (0.0260)
Player:
Opponent:55.61% (G:12.75% B:0.55%)
44.39% (G:11.82% B:0.53%)Conf.: ±0.0029 (0.0521...0.0462)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute4. Rollout^{2} 21/15 16/10(3) eq: 0.0998 (0.0766)
Player:
Opponent:53.97% (G:9.09% B:0.36%)
46.03% (G:8.90% B:0.30%)Conf.: ±0.0049 (0.1047...0.0948)  [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 02 seconds^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 56524501
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013Oct06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000871.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Similar Position; Similar Play
Once again, XG targets the 4pt, while forcing White to abandon his anchor to hit.In this variation, giving up the 8pt would leave fewer builders for the 4pt. XG finds a play that I would overlook. Its surprising choice is to burn a builder by playing 7/1! This allows the other 6s to be played so as to leave only 1 blot within direct range of White’s anchor. Depending how you count the checkers on his 7pt and 8pt, Blue still manages to have three, four, or five builders aiming at his 4pt.

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