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Rollout Result and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 11 October 2013, at 6:46 a.m.

In Response To: Middle Game Double Deuces (Paul Weaver)

The diagram on the right shows the position after the best play 20/16(2) has been made. This move violates two well-known "rules."

(1) Unstack your 6pt and make your 4pt with an early 22. (2) When trailing in the count, stay farther back.

Blue's owning both the 16pt and the 18pt can give White some unpleasant surprises. For starters, White will be in for a surprise if she rolls 66. White's chance of rolling at least one 66 over the next several rolls is roughly several divided by 36. White's 8pt will be gone and her chance of eventually leaving a shot goes way up.

Other bad things can happen to White when Blue holds the 16pt and 18pt in this position. Notice how White's 21 and 41 play. White's 62 64 51 force her to leave a shot (or give up the 8pt). Lots of sick things can happen to White. Suppose White rolls 41 (6/1) and then rolls 62 64 or 51. Double shot (or bye-bye 8pt).

Although White's 22 33 44 are good rolls, they all leave White involved in a lot of contact. Only her 55 is a joker, by my standards.

I never saw or considered this play over the board.

 White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 163 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 176 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=------E-C-c-fB---bBdC-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout120/16(2)eq: -0.192
 Player:Opponent: 44.59% (G:7.64% B:0.27%)55.41% (G:7.66% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.206...-0.179) - [98.1%]Duration: 13 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout120/16 6/4(2)eq: -0.213 (-0.020)
 Player:Opponent: 43.86% (G:8.44% B:0.28%)56.14% (G:7.90% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.227...-0.199) - [1.9%]Duration: 13 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout118/16(2) 6/4(2)eq: -0.233 (-0.041)
 Player:Opponent: 43.22% (G:5.96% B:0.19%)56.78% (G:5.22% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.247...-0.220) - [0.0%]Duration: 13 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout120/18 8/4 6/4eq: -0.234 (-0.041)
 Player:Opponent: 43.41% (G:6.50% B:0.19%)56.59% (G:6.25% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.247...-0.220) - [0.0%]Duration: 12 minutes 36 seconds
5.Rollout120/16 18/16(2)eq: -0.260 (-0.068)
 Player:Opponent: 42.63% (G:5.23% B:0.16%)57.37% (G:5.01% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.273...-0.248) - [0.0%]Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 163 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 168 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=------E-C-c-fB--BbBdA-----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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