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Calculating wining chance and....

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 15 October 2013, at 9:00 p.m.

In Response To: Calculating wining chance and.... (__1ERROR1__)

John's procedure was more or less the same as mine, but he spelled out GWC and gammon chance estimates, which seem about right. The reason he can come up with ~70% GWC and ~20% gammon chances is because he knows reference positions to compare your position to.

If you thought you won only 13% that may be because you considered immediate shots/hits only. Opponent has 8 numbers that point, of which you'd be lucky to win 1; several numbers that leave a shot for you next turn; and a few numbers that don't leave any shots but don't clear the midpoint either. That totals about 10-15%. Then, beyond your next turn, you'll get extra winning chances from opponent (a) clearing 2 checkers from the midpoint (b) clearing 1 checker from the midpoint (c) clearing the 8 point or (d) clearing the 6 point. If each of those extra chances adds 2 or 3 percent to your total winning chances, you get an estimate closer to the one John made.

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