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Bearoff redouble
Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 4:30 p.m.
In Response To: Bearoff redouble (Daniel Murphy)
EPC.
Blue has a nice position with wastage 7; so his EPC is 60.
White has a flat position which wastes 10 and two "wasty" checkers on low points. From Matussek's formula, with 8 checkers or fewer on the board a checker on the 1pt contributes 2 wastage and a checker on the 2pt contributes 1.3 wastage. In our case the actual wastage will be a bit less than that since we have more checkers on the board. I'd estimate white wastage as at most 13, but at least 12. So, white EPC is between 62 and 63, probably closer to 63 than 62.
White point of last take would be 65. Since white is two pips plus change below that, the position is a small initial double (blue's pips position is more volatile than a rolls position, so he can double half a pip earlier than point of last take minus 2), but not quite a redouble yet  blue is one pip short for that.
P.S. For the purpose of match play, Matussek's GWC formula gives around 7071% winning chance for blue.

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