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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 24 October 2013, at 1:45 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

Ran into this the other day vs. XGR+. The trailer's dead cube gammonless tp ats is ~29%, gammons favor the trailer by approx .76/.47 and the leader's 4-cube tp is 33% ats. After adjusting for g's and cube vig, I came up with a true tp of around 26%. So does the trailer have a take? Looks like it. The race is bad but not hopeless, about nine or ten of my next rolls leave a direct shot, the sixteen point might force another shot later, and the gammon chances are relatively low.

Should I double? I thought so since the t/p decision looked close and covering the five pt cleanly might well lose the market. The RO agreed with D/T.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
5 point match
pip: 131
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=--a--ADCBb--bEa--cae------:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.33% (G:16.43% B:0.39%) 73.04% (G:17.79% B:0.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.67% (G:3.95% B:0.17%) 26.96% (G:4.19% B:0.43%)
Cubeless Equities +0.626 +1.263
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.863 (-0.044)±0.011 (+0.852..+0.873)
Double/Take:+0.906±0.017 (+0.890..+0.923)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.094)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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