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Rollout Result and Commentary
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: Blue's 61 (Paul Weaver)
Date: Sunday, 27 October 2013, at 12:18 a.m.
The rollout results appear beneath Position 1. The point of presenting Position 2 is to support my claim that if Blue gets a clean close out with ideal spares, his G chances are over 65%. The rollout data beneath Position 1 indicate that the hitting plays give Blue G chances between 47 and 48% while the non-hitting plays give Blue G chances between 24 and 27%. Blue loses a few more games by hitting, but the Gs are so great that the two hitting plays are much better than the non-hits.
The two hitting plays are diagramed below in Position 3 and Position 4.
Position 1.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 123Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 91
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=-aBBBBBAB---b-B--cbd-ba---:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 61
1. Rollout1 7/1* 2/1 eq: +1.022
Player:
Opponent:82.26% (G:47.91% B:0.27%)
17.74% (G:4.06% B:0.20%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.017...+1.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds2. Rollout1 8/1* eq: +1.000 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:81.88% (G:47.42% B:0.31%)
18.12% (G:4.24% B:0.23%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.994...+1.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds3. Rollout1 8/7 8/2 eq: +0.981 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:88.57% (G:26.32% B:0.31%)
11.43% (G:1.70% B:0.11%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.976...+0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds4. Rollout1 14/7 eq: +0.878 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:84.96% (G:24.95% B:0.72%)
15.04% (G:1.97% B:0.11%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.871...+0.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 2.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 124Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 57
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=aBBBCCC-----b----cbd-ba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 97.66% (G:65.03% B:0.10%) 97.67% (G:65.51% B:0.08%) Opponent Winning Chances: 2.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 2.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +1.605 +3.218 Cubeful Equities No double: +1.000 ±0.000 (+1.000..+1.000) Double/Take: +3.198 (+2.198) ±0.006 (+3.192..+3.205) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 50.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 25.3 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now that we have decided to hit, we must find the two hitting plays and then decide which is better. Position 3 shows the best play, while Position 4 shows the move I believe more players would make.
At first glance, there is a weakness in Position 3 compared to Position 4. If White misses, Blue has fewer prime-making numbers in Position 3 than in Position 4. Then why is Position 3 better?
Both plays give White 11 hits, but not all hits are created equal. White's 11 hitting deuces in Position 3 are stronger on average than her 11 hitting aces in Position 4. White's 11 in Position 4 gives her a 5-prime, while White's 22 in Position 3 does not. White has a good 51 and a good 61 in Position 4, while in Position 3, White's 52 is duplicated. White's 62 in Position 3 is a horror shot, exposing a third blot, but White has no corresponding horror shot in Position 4.
Finally, Blue has three blots in Position 4, but only one in Position 3. Although it is unlikely that White will close out Blue's three blots in Position 4, this kind of freaky fluky flaky event happens more often than you might think.
Position 3.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 124Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 84
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=aBABBBB-B---b-B--cbd-ba---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action?
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 4.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 124Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 84
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=aABBBBBAA---b-B--cbd-ba---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action?
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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