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Rollout Result and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 27 October 2013, at 12:18 a.m.

In Response To: Blue's 61 (Paul Weaver)

The rollout results appear beneath Position 1. The point of presenting Position 2 is to support my claim that if Blue gets a clean close out with ideal spares, his G chances are over 65%. The rollout data beneath Position 1 indicate that the hitting plays give Blue G chances between 47 and 48% while the non-hitting plays give Blue G chances between 24 and 27%. Blue loses a few more games by hitting, but the Gs are so great that the two hitting plays are much better than the non-hits.

The two hitting plays are diagramed below in Position 3 and Position 4.

Position 1.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-aBBBBBAB---b-B--cbd-ba---:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout17/1* 2/1eq: +1.022
Player:
Opponent:
82.26% (G:47.91% B:0.27%)
17.74% (G:4.06% B:0.20%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+1.017...+1.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds
2.Rollout18/1* eq: +1.000 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
81.88% (G:47.42% B:0.31%)
18.12% (G:4.24% B:0.23%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.994...+1.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
3.Rollout18/7 8/2eq: +0.981 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
88.57% (G:26.32% B:0.31%)
11.43% (G:1.70% B:0.11%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.976...+0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
4.Rollout114/7eq: +0.878 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
84.96% (G:24.95% B:0.72%)
15.04% (G:1.97% B:0.11%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.871...+0.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 57
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aBBBCCC-----b----cbd-ba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 97.66% (G:65.03% B:0.10%) 97.67% (G:65.51% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 2.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 2.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +1.605 +3.218
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.0000.000 (+1.000..+1.000)
Double/Take:+3.198 (+2.198)0.006 (+3.192..+3.205)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:50.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now that we have decided to hit, we must find the two hitting plays and then decide which is better. Position 3 shows the best play, while Position 4 shows the move I believe more players would make.

At first glance, there is a weakness in Position 3 compared to Position 4. If White misses, Blue has fewer prime-making numbers in Position 3 than in Position 4. Then why is Position 3 better?

Both plays give White 11 hits, but not all hits are created equal. White's 11 hitting deuces in Position 3 are stronger on average than her 11 hitting aces in Position 4. White's 11 in Position 4 gives her a 5-prime, while White's 22 in Position 3 does not. White has a good 51 and a good 61 in Position 4, while in Position 3, White's 52 is duplicated. White's 62 in Position 3 is a horror shot, exposing a third blot, but White has no corresponding horror shot in Position 4.

Finally, Blue has three blots in Position 4, but only one in Position 3. Although it is unlikely that White will close out Blue's three blots in Position 4, this kind of freaky fluky flaky event happens more often than you might think.

Position 3.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aBABBBB-B---b-B--cbd-ba---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aABBBBBAA---b-B--cbd-ba---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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