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BGonline.org Forums
Help me find the right play: RO and more questions
Posted By: Jeremy Bagai In Response To: Help me find the right play (Jeremy Bagai)
Date: Wednesday, 6 November 2013, at 5:33 p.m.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1487 point match pip: 135
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=---bB-E-BBA-cA---caeBa----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10 Blue to play 42
1. Rollout1 20/18* 18/14 eq: +0.652
Player:
Opponent:64.83% (G:19.33% B:1.04%)
35.17% (G:7.93% B:0.49%)Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.636...+0.668) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds2. Rollout1 20/16 20/18* eq: +0.605 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:64.08% (G:19.20% B:1.03%)
35.92% (G:8.58% B:0.62%)Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.590...+0.620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds3. Rollout1 20/18* 13/9 eq: +0.555 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:62.25% (G:19.91% B:1.04%)
37.75% (G:8.57% B:0.42%)Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.539...+0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45849617
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Ok, we agree on the hit. We're going to be 37 pips ahead, with a nice blocking structure against a 3pt anchor. Cube coming soon.
Opponent has no board and a blot, so it's not like we're particularly worried about being hit back. OTOH, it's not like we're particularly eager to make the 10 point. My thought over the board: Safety one blot and add a builder for the 5 point: 20/18* 13/9.
I'm not surprised that it's wrong. I'm surprised it's a .096 blunder.
Stick says: "Continuing is natural as it's the easiest way to help escape all the checkers and doesn't allow the opponent's non entering numbers, 4s and 6s, to hit." Ok, so 13/9 gives opp a good six. But look at 20/18* 20/16: gives good sixes and good fours, and is still .05 better than 13/9. So I don't think it's about the returns.
So is it the "easiest way to help escape all the checkers" part? If you can consolidate on the 13 or 14, you have an effective cube. But not if you're stuck on the 18?
Still surprised, but gaining some acceptance . . .
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