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Help me find the right play: RO and more questions

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Wednesday, 6 November 2013, at 5:33 p.m.

In Response To: Help me find the right play (Jeremy Bagai)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bB-E-BBA-cA---caeBa----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout120/18* 18/14eq: +0.652
Player:
Opponent:
64.83% (G:19.33% B:1.04%)
35.17% (G:7.93% B:0.49%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.636...+0.668) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout120/16 20/18* eq: +0.605 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
64.08% (G:19.20% B:1.03%)
35.92% (G:8.58% B:0.62%)
Conf.: 0.015 (+0.590...+0.620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout120/18* 13/9eq: +0.555 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
62.25% (G:19.91% B:1.04%)
37.75% (G:8.57% B:0.42%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.539...+0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45849617
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Ok, we agree on the hit. We're going to be 37 pips ahead, with a nice blocking structure against a 3pt anchor. Cube coming soon.

Opponent has no board and a blot, so it's not like we're particularly worried about being hit back. OTOH, it's not like we're particularly eager to make the 10 point. My thought over the board: Safety one blot and add a builder for the 5 point: 20/18* 13/9.

I'm not surprised that it's wrong. I'm surprised it's a .096 blunder.

Stick says: "Continuing is natural as it's the easiest way to help escape all the checkers and doesn't allow the opponent's non entering numbers, 4s and 6s, to hit." Ok, so 13/9 gives opp a good six. But look at 20/18* 20/16: gives good sixes and good fours, and is still .05 better than 13/9. So I don't think it's about the returns.

So is it the "easiest way to help escape all the checkers" part? If you can consolidate on the 13 or 14, you have an effective cube. But not if you're stuck on the 18?

Still surprised, but gaining some acceptance . . .

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