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Dual duel and the effects of luck

Posted By: Rod
Date: Friday, 8 November 2013, at 1:30 p.m.

In Response To: "World Champion" vs World Champion (Art Grater)

MCG is a great player. So no one thinks I'm bashing him, I will disclose I placed him in the top 5 on my Giants ballot. He plays excellent tournament backgammon as well as $ play.

However, while a low PR in competition will, over time, correlate with winning chances and general level of play, in any single match or competition will not necessarily. This is not my view only (virtually every player I have spoken to agrees, the better the player the better they understand it has seemed).

Essentially there are, the way I look at it, 2 types of luck in backgammon - general luck and roll specific luck. General luck adds to out XG luck rating. Roll specific luck allows us the ability to have a low PR while not affecting our XG luck by giving us rolls we know how to play, whether they are bad or good from a general luck standpoint (our "virtually forced" plays).

A single dual duel PR-side winner will likely be a good player. But that competition, even if won in a final 1.1 PR played match, can't crown a winner either.

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