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OLM 2013-11-10

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 11 November 2013, at 6:52 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-11-10 (Jason Lee)

Lift 8pt or Make the Ace

If we lift the 8pt, playing J (Jump) = 8/6 8/3, on our next turn there will be 6 rolls that leave a direct shot and 3 more that leave a fly shot. Here is the breakdown:
  • Make 1pt: 66 65 62 61 52 51 21 11
  • Safe: 54 53 44 43 41 33 32 31
  • Direct shot: 64 63 42
  • Fly shot: 55 22

If we make the 1pt, the risks depend whether XG dances, and if not, where it enters.

  • Outside blot: 66 64 55
  • Inside blot: 63 54
  • Outside blot (if opp on bar) or safe (if not): 43
  • Safe: 65 62 61 52 51 44 42 41 33 32 31 21 11
  • Lift 6pt: 53

One advantage to making the 1pt is that XG might not be able to improve its board before the critical moment occurs.

P (Point) = 6/1*, 3/1

Mike

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