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Thoughts OTB

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 12 November 2013, at 1:43 a.m.

In Response To: End game cube from VA (neilkaz)

OTB I was white here and had to think a while. I know that I can still win about 10% from here from the average close out position. At worst my opp will close me out 90% of the time, so that meant that I could still expect to win 19%. Some of my wins when I don't get closed out are gammons and those certainly are juicy at this score and I have a potent recube threat as my opp's TP is 30% dead cube.

I wasn't sure if 19% cubeless was enough for me to take under these circumstances, but 90% was my absolute worst case scenario for the chances to have both closed out. I ended up taking the cube, fully believing that my chances to have both closed out was at least slightly less than 90%. Sometimes I will luck box it home, occasionally one checker can sneak home, at other times I re-anchor on the ace pt. and don't get squeezed out.

After taking I was quickly ruined when forced to run with 54 and mangled by 44 hitting both and closing the 2 pt.

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