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501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269 -- Rollout + Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 15 November 2013, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269 (Igor)

Robertie suggests 16/10 13/10(2) since it consolidates our race lead and creates a flexible position. Pretty natural move and this is also the move I would have chosen.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 175
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.586
Player:
Opponent:
61.95% (G:23.39% B:1.69%)
38.05% (G:8.97% B:0.41%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.583...+0.590) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout116/10 13/10(2)eq: +0.577 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
62.83% (G:19.66% B:1.45%)
37.17% (G:7.95% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.574...+0.581) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout216/13 8/5(3)eq: +0.562 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
62.13% (G:21.30% B:1.47%)
37.87% (G:8.63% B:0.31%)
Conf.: 0.013 (+0.549...+0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 18 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98970080
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98970080
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

However, a few extra gammon wins after 13/10(2) 8/5(2) makes it a serious contender. If our blot on the 8pt is hit we will have no trouble entering, we will be still ahead in the race but with the permanent asset of the 5pt now.

Naturally, the safe play is correct at DMP.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 175
1 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout116/10 13/10(2)eq: +0.222
Player:
Opponent:
61.10% (G:28.37% B:7.82%)
38.90% (G:7.77% B:0.76%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.219...+0.225) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.213 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
60.65% (G:30.22% B:7.14%)
39.35% (G:9.27% B:1.23%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.210...+0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout116/13 8/5(3)eq: +0.211 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
60.53% (G:30.13% B:7.45%)
39.47% (G:8.62% B:0.92%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.208...+0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds
4.Rollout224/21 16/10 13/10eq: +0.206 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
60.31% (G:26.35% B:7.11%)
39.69% (G:8.76% B:1.28%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.202...+0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86041989
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86041989
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Make white's home board stronger and the risk is no longer justified.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-cb---A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout116/10 13/10(2)eq: +0.240
Player:
Opponent:
54.77% (G:17.27% B:1.28%)
45.23% (G:10.83% B:0.43%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.233...+0.247) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout116/13 8/5(3)eq: +0.224 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
54.25% (G:18.27% B:1.16%)
45.75% (G:11.89% B:0.48%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.218...+0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout224/21 16/10 13/10eq: +0.223 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
54.45% (G:16.85% B:1.37%)
45.55% (G:11.78% B:0.45%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.215...+0.231) - [0.1%]
Duration: 32 minutes 48 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68675974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68675974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 171
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-c-b--A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout116/10 13/10(2)eq: +0.315
Player:
Opponent:
56.71% (G:17.55% B:1.36%)
43.29% (G:10.47% B:0.40%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.306...+0.323) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout116/13 8/5(3)eq: +0.284 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
55.89% (G:18.75% B:1.21%)
44.11% (G:11.39% B:0.54%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.275...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout213/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.244 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
54.85% (G:19.70% B:1.40%)
45.15% (G:12.58% B:0.65%)
Conf.: 0.017 (+0.227...+0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 57 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 97498035
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 97498035
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Give white a hint of a blocking structure, and blue must step up with the straggler.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 175
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Abbd----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout124/21 16/10 13/10eq: +0.420
Player:
Opponent:
59.07% (G:18.08% B:1.48%)
40.93% (G:9.37% B:0.35%)
Conf.: 0.017 (+0.403...+0.438) - [99.9%]
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.377 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
57.64% (G:20.61% B:1.51%)
42.36% (G:10.33% B:0.52%)
Conf.: 0.019 (+0.358...+0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout116/10 13/10(2)eq: +0.377 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
57.73% (G:18.95% B:1.47%)
42.27% (G:9.32% B:0.38%)
Conf.: 0.019 (+0.358...+0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout116/13 8/5(3)eq: +0.363 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
57.47% (G:20.03% B:1.27%)
42.53% (G:9.89% B:0.42%)
Conf.: 0.014 (+0.349...+0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33275860
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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