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501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269 -- Rollout + Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 15 November 2013, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269 (Igor)

Robertie suggests 16/10 13/10(2) since it consolidates our race lead and creates a flexible position. Pretty natural move and this is also the move I would have chosen.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 175 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.586
	Player: Opponent: 61.95% (G:23.39% B:1.69%) 38.05% (G:8.97% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.583...+0.590) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.	Rollout1	16/10 13/10(2)	eq: +0.577 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 62.83% (G:19.66% B:1.45%) 37.17% (G:7.95% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.574...+0.581) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.	Rollout2	16/13 8/5(3)	eq: +0.562 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 62.13% (G:21.30% B:1.47%) 37.87% (G:8.63% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.549...+0.574) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 18 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 98970080 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 98970080 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

However, a few extra gammon wins after 13/10(2) 8/5(2) makes it a serious contender. If our blot on the 8pt is hit we will have no trouble entering, we will be still ahead in the race but with the permanent asset of the 5pt now.

Naturally, the safe play is correct at DMP.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 175 1 point match pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	16/10 13/10(2)	eq: +0.222
	Player: Opponent: 61.10% (G:28.37% B:7.82%) 38.90% (G:7.77% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.219...+0.225) - [100.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 12 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.213 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 60.65% (G:30.22% B:7.14%) 39.35% (G:9.27% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.210...+0.216) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 39 seconds
3.	Rollout1	16/13 8/5(3)	eq: +0.211 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 60.53% (G:30.13% B:7.45%) 39.47% (G:8.62% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.208...+0.214) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/21 16/10 13/10	eq: +0.206 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 60.31% (G:26.35% B:7.11%) 39.69% (G:8.76% B:1.28%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.202...+0.211) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86041989 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86041989 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Make white's home board stronger and the risk is no longer justified.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 173 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-cb---A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	16/10 13/10(2)	eq: +0.240
	Player: Opponent: 54.77% (G:17.27% B:1.28%) 45.23% (G:10.83% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.233...+0.247) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.	Rollout1	16/13 8/5(3)	eq: +0.224 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 54.25% (G:18.27% B:1.16%) 45.75% (G:11.89% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.218...+0.229) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/21 16/10 13/10	eq: +0.223 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 54.45% (G:16.85% B:1.37%) 45.55% (G:11.78% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.215...+0.231) - [0.1%] Duration: 32 minutes 48 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 68675974 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 68675974 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 171 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Ac-c-b--A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	16/10 13/10(2)	eq: +0.315
	Player: Opponent: 56.71% (G:17.55% B:1.36%) 43.29% (G:10.47% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.306...+0.323) - [100.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/13 8/5(3)	eq: +0.284 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 55.89% (G:18.75% B:1.21%) 44.11% (G:11.39% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.275...+0.293) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 52 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.244 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 54.85% (G:19.70% B:1.40%) 45.15% (G:12.58% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.227...+0.261) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 57 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 97498035 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 97498035 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Give white a hint of a blocking structure, and blue must step up with the straggler.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 175 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-C-C---dE--Abbd----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/21 16/10 13/10	eq: +0.420
	Player: Opponent: 59.07% (G:18.08% B:1.48%) 40.93% (G:9.37% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.403...+0.438) - [99.9%] Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.377 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 57.64% (G:20.61% B:1.51%) 42.36% (G:10.33% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.358...+0.396) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 38 seconds
3.	Rollout1	16/10 13/10(2)	eq: +0.377 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 57.73% (G:18.95% B:1.47%) 42.27% (G:9.32% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.358...+0.395) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
4.	Rollout1	16/13 8/5(3)	eq: +0.363 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 57.47% (G:20.03% B:1.27%) 42.53% (G:9.89% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.349...+0.377) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 33275860 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269
  Igor -- Thursday, 7 November 2013, at 7:42 p.m.
  • 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 7 November 2013, at 9:35 p.m.
  • 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269
    Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 14 November 2013, at 8:57 a.m.
  • 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #269 -- Rollout + Variants
    Igor -- Friday, 15 November 2013, at 12:00 a.m.