Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: O'Hagan's rule (Ray Kershaw)
Date: Monday, 18 November 2013, at 1:49 a.m.
In Response To: O'Hagan's rule (Ray Kershaw)
If I have 14 rolls that are really good for me, I have 14 market losers. But if there are 3 rolls that are terrible, I now have 11 "net" market losers.
We're not done. Before our next roll, our opponent can roll, and some of his rolls can be really bad for him/good for us, and should be added to the market losers. Some of his rolls could be wonderful for him, and those should be "anti-market losers" that we subtract from our net market losers.
So if the net number is 9 it usually is correct to double in a money game or NMS.
This sounds complicated, but for many types of positions it isn't really that hard. For example in a PVP position, it is quite easy and extremely accurate and works like a charm.
When your opponent has a 5 point or 7 point holding game, this methodology breaks down quite a bit because your only market losers are often only doubles (if you still have the mid point to clear), and therefore, you often have a double with far less than 9 market losers because when you lose your market you lose it by a lot...so in this instance, the Rule of 4 is a better method to know when to double.
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